Why Medvedev threatening to use nukes needs to be taken seriously — and how to (maybe) prevent it.

Why the threat is serious:

Ukraine has pulled off a stunning counterattack that has left Putin scrambling and much of his army in shambles. He’s desperate to reverse situation, and one way to do that would be with nukes, but how could he justify that?

Well, the one situation where a country could justify using nuclear weapons is on its own territory while defending against an invasion. Here’s how Putin plans to do just that.

1. Hold sham elections in the “Donetsk People’s Republic”, “Lugansk People’s Republic”, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions, in other words the parts of Ukraine Putin has invaded and occupies.

2. Ratify the sham vote, and admit these territories to Russia.

3. Now that they are “officially” and “legally” part of Russia (they aren’t, remember the elections will be a sham) threaten to use nukes in Donetsk, Lugansk, Zaprozhye, and Kherson to repel the Ukrainian liberato — sorry, invaders.

4. Follow through and do it. Nuke Ukrainian forces trying to liberate the territories Russia invaded, while Putin gets to claim he’s doing it to protect Russian territory, since those totally (not) legit elections “made” the territories part of Russia.

Yes, that means people “voting” to join Russia will be giving Putin an excuse to nuke them when he says he’s defending them against Ukraine by using nukes against the Ukrainian forces across the street.

Nobody outside of Putin’s propaganda bubble will buy his justification for using nukes. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if it’s a bridge too far for India, the Peoples Republic of China, and other countries on his side, but it might buy him some time in Russia. Or it might trigger revolution and civil war in Russia, and he’ll suffer the fate of many tyrants whose last sight is their feet dangling in air.

What Putin really needs is a way out.

- and How to (maybe) get rid of Putin

“When you surround an army, leave an outlet free. Do not press a desperate foe too hard.” Sun Tzu: Art of War, chapter 7.

The lesson Sun Tzu teaches here is that nothing fights as fiercely as a cornered rat, cornered anything really. So leave the rat a way out, so you don’t have to deal with a desperate opponent. Putin needs a way out, or in his desperation he may resort to nukes. Here’s how to give him a bolthole.

1. Offer him sanctuary and the return of his assets. He can retire to live out whatever life he has left in wealth, and with the knowledge his family will have that wealth and safety when he dies.

He can have his cash, his yachts, his property, and go wherever he wants that will take him in.

He can spin whatever self-aggrandizing story about doing what is best for Russia he likes.

2. In return, he leaves Russia, never to return. As does his family. If they decide to do “Keeping up with the Putins” twenty years down the road, that’s their problem. Or maybe they will do better with the wealth he leaves them than he has done with the power he came to, should they care about rehabilitating their name.

3. Keep the agreement. He and his family are given asylum and keep their wealth. Why? So you can offer the same deal to someone else should it be necessary, and they will have confidence that the deal will be honored.

In fact, I’d go so far as to say the same deal should be offered to his cronies. Get them out of the country and there’s a chance that a new Russian government might give that democracy thing they flirted with in the 90s another chance.

Give the new government a clean slate as well. Russia has had a bad case of the Putins, there’s no point tarnishing a new administration with the same brush before they have a chance to prove themselves. Don’t let up on the sactions and arming of Ukraine until they end the war and withdraw, but when they do end the sanctions. They will of course be expected to help pay for the rebuilding of Ukraine, but that is part of demonstrating through actions that they can again be a member in good standing of the international community.

Make him the offer and see what happens. Putin’s may not take the deal, but it’s more likely now than it was in April, and the more desperate he gets the better amnesty and regaining his assets will look.

The only real downside is that if Putin takes the deal it means giving up on revenge and letting him get away with loot he has already taken from Russia, but if it stops the war, and prevents the use of nuclear weapons, I’d say it’s worth it.